DNB Markets’ Buy Call on Golar LNG: Why This LNG Innovator May Be Entering a New Value Phase

In a market where energy transition narratives and supply chain disruptions dominate headlines, few companies are as uniquely positioned as Golar LNG Ltd.(GLNG). The floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) pioneer has just received a notable analyst upgrade from DNB Markets, one of Scandinavia’s most respected investment banks. DNB has shifted its stance from 'Hold' to 'Buy' and set a fresh price target of $48, implying a substantial upside from the current price near $38.29.

This upgrade is more than a simple rating tweak—it comes as Golar achieves key milestones, notably the completion of its FLNG Gimi’s first LNG offload, which opens new revenue streams and signals potential for significant earnings growth. In a sector where long-term contracts and technological edge can create outsized value, such analyst moves offer sophisticated investors an actionable signal that’s rooted in both operational progress and strategic vision.

Key Takeaways:

• Potential upside of 25.4% based on DNB’s new $48 price target versus the current price of $38.29.

• Recent momentum: Golar LNG shares surged over 21% in the last month, outpacing sector peers as major project milestones were hit.

• Critical news catalyst: FLNG Gimi’s first LNG cargo offload, triggering a major contractual bonus and paving the way for a 20-year revenue stream.

• Sector sentiment: LNG shipping stocks are rallying on robust demand and optimism about long-term supply deals; Golar LNG is leading the charge.

• Analyst conviction: DNB Markets is a heavyweight in energy analytics, and its upgrade carries significant weight in Nordic and global capital markets.

The Analyst Upgrade: Context, Conviction, and Why It Matters

DNB Markets: Reputation and Influence

DNB Markets, the investment banking arm of DNB ASA (Norway’s largest financial services group), is renowned for its deep research bench in energy and shipping. Its analyst team is considered a sector authority, and upgrades from DNB often prompt meaningful inflows from institutional investors across Europe and North America.

Their shift from 'Hold' to 'Buy' is significant, especially with no previous price target but now a clear $48 target—firmly above Golar’s recent trading range. This move indicates a conviction that the market is underappreciating Golar’s earnings power and contract-driven visibility.

From a sentiment perspective, DNB’s involvement often signals that a company’s risk/reward profile has improved materially, justifying new capital allocation from risk-aware investors.

"DNB’s upgrade aligns with Golar’s operational breakthroughs and the broader uptrend in LNG shipping demand. Their coverage is highly respected for its rigor and sector insight."
— Energy Markets Strategist, Oslo

Golar LNG: Business Model and Sector Positioning

Golar LNG’s core business is the conversion of LNG carriers into floating liquefaction and regasification units, allowing it to serve both upstream gas producers and downstream buyers seeking flexible, cost-effective solutions. This model stands out in a sector often characterized by high capex, project delays, and regulatory risk. By focusing on modular, redeployable assets, Golar reduces lead times and enhances return on invested capital.

The company’s most recent milestone—FLNG Gimi’s first cargo offload—represents a critical inflection point. This not only brings Mauritania and Senegal into the international gas market but also unlocks a $3 billion EBITDA backlog under a 20-year lease agreement. Golar now stands to benefit from both recurring lease revenues and performance-based bonuses, a combination that offers resilience against spot market volatility.

Stock and Financial Performance: An Analytical Lens

Stock Momentum:

• Current price: $38.29 (up 2.2% on the session)

• 30-day performance: +21.4% (significant outperformance versus the LNG shipping peer group)

• One-year high/low: $44.36/$24.42, with price currently trading near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating positive momentum but also the possibility of near-term consolidation.

Technical and Sentiment Indicators:

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): 53.0 (neutral, not overbought)

• 20-day EMA: $36.51 (price above EMA, bullish trend)

• Sentiment Ratio (up days to down days): 0.51 (balanced, suggesting recent momentum is built on genuine buying interest)

• Volume: Recent volumes have trended above average, confirming institutional accumulation.

Financial Health:

• The FLNG Gimi milestone triggers the start of a 20-year lease, backstopped by a major oil & gas customer, dramatically improving cash flow visibility.

• The company now recognizes both capital and operating revenues from this contract, which is expected to bolster both the balance sheet and the income statement in the coming quarters.

News Catalysts: Why the Market Is Paying Attention

FLNG Gimi’s First LNG Offload—A Game Changer

The most significant recent news is Golar’s announcement of the successful offload of its first full LNG cargo from FLNG Gimi to the British Sponsor vessel. This milestone not only introduces Mauritania and Senegal as new players in the international LNG market but also unlocks immediate contractual bonuses for Golar. The start of commercial operations in Q2 2025 will trigger the 20-year lease and operation agreement, representing roughly $3 billion in EBITDA backlog attributable to Golar.

"Commissioning remains on track for a Q2 2025 Commercial Operations Date (COD). COD triggers the start of the 20-year Lease and Operate Agreement that unlocks the equivalent of around $3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA backlog (Golar's share) and recognition of contractual payments comprised of capital and operating elements in both the balance sheet and income statement."
— GlobeNewswire, April 17, 2025

Market Reaction: Sector-Wide Optimism

According to a Seeking Alpha sector summary, the UP World LNG Shipping Index recently gained over 3%, with several LNG names posting double-digit returns. Golar led the group, reflecting not just company-specific progress but also upbeat sentiment toward long-term LNG demand and new supply contracts.

Potential Upside: Quantifying the Opportunity

DNB Markets’ $48 price target points to a potential upside of 25.4% from current levels. This is a notable premium, especially given the recent run-up in the stock. The magnitude of this upside reflects the market’s re-rating of Golar’s business model from opportunistic project developer to a contract-driven cash flow generator.

For investors, the analyst’s buy call coincides with:

• Contracted revenue visibility (reducing earnings risk)

• Operational proof-points (lowering execution risk)

• Sector tailwinds (rising LNG demand, especially in Europe and Asia)

Risks and Considerations

While the thesis for upside is strong, investors should recognize:

• The stock is trading near recent highs; some near-term consolidation or profit-taking is possible.

• LNG markets are cyclical, and new project delays or geopolitical issues can impact contract execution.

• The company’s future value realization depends on smooth ramp-up and continued operational success with FLNG Gimi and future units.

The DeepStreet View: Why This Upgrade Shouldn’t Be Ignored

DNB Markets’ upgrade is not just a reflection of Golar LNG’s past achievements, but an endorsement of its forward trajectory. With contract-driven cash flow visibility, a proven operating model, and sector momentum, Golar stands out as a differentiated LNG play in today’s market. The stock’s recent surge suggests investors are already responding to these developments, but with a 25.4% upside to DNB’s target, the risk/reward profile remains compelling.

For sophisticated investors seeking exposure to the intersection of energy transition, emerging market gas demand, and maritime innovation, Golar LNG offers a rare blend of growth, visibility, and sector leadership. Analyst upgrades like DNB’s often mark the beginning—not the end—of a new value phase.